Pakatan Harapan’s recent loss in a Penang by-election should give it some grounds for introspection.
The recently concluded by-election for the semi-rural Sungai Bakap state seat in Penang was seen as an opportunity for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s unity coalition of coalitions to demonstrate that it can finally gain electoral support from heartland Malay voters. After a successful by-election defence two months ago and one and a half years in power, the Pakatan Harapan (PH)-Barisan Nasional (BN) alliance has found a steady governing cadence with an increasingly cosy working relationship between the former foes.
The partnership anchored Malaysia’s new-found political stability, which has delivered impressive economic dividends. With approved foreign direct investments last year soaring to a historic high, Malaysia has emerged as the preferred choice for setting up data centres and de-risking supply chains in semiconductors away from China. The stock market is the best performing bourse in Southeast Asia.
These successes have emboldened Anwar to finally pull the trigger on much-needed structural reforms that can ensure fiscal sustainability. He has moved to withdraw blanket subsidies for diesel and signalled that petrol will be next. To soften the impact, he has promised increased cash transfers to lower-income groups and an increase in civil servant salaries.
Unfortunately for Anwar, his efforts were met with a crushing defeat for his party’s candidate in Sungai Bakap. Not only did the opposition Islamist party, Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS), retain the seat under the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition, they did so with a majority almost three times larger than before. Malay voters overwhelmingly supported PAS and many Chinese and Indians expressed their protest by not turning up to vote. Young voters, once again, showed a preference for PN while supporters of BN lynchpin, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), were likely to have transferred their votes to PN instead of UMNO, PH’s partner in government.
Despite these significant advantages, PH received a strong rebuke. And the rejection was both national and local. PN once again framed the by-election as a referendum on Anwar’s government to build political momentum towards the next general election.
Although the constituency was won by PN at last year’s state election, conditions were ripe for a PH victory. This could have signalled that the grouping was now able to compete in Malay-majority seats. The by-election was in the Anwar’s home state of Penang, and controlled by PH. The constituency is located within the parliamentary ward of Fadhlina Sidek, the education minister and head of the women’s wing of Anwar’s party, Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR). The PH campaign was prominently led by two leading lights of PKR: Anwar’s daughter, Nurul Izzah, and deputy leader, Rafizi Ramli, who are often spoken of as future prime ministers. Federal and state leaders were so blatant and generous in their promises and enticements, it led to a censure by election watchdog, Bersih. And PH boasted a candidate who was presented as far more qualified than PN’s choice.
Despite these significant advantages, PH received a strong rebuke. And the rejection was both national and local. PN once again framed the by-election as a referendum on Anwar’s government to build political momentum towards the next general election. The withdrawal of blanket diesel subsidies and a corresponding increase in the price of goods was staple campaign fodder for PN. This resonated with the voters not only because of its impact on the cost of living but also because it exposed the political duplicity of PH. In opposition, PH leaders had constantly promised reduced fuel prices and the continuation of blanket subsidies. In government, they are now compelled to go back on those promises. In a sense, this gave PN a logical and effective campaign strategy: all PN had to do was harvest and edit video archives to create a highlight reel of hypocrisy.
PH also continued to be abysmal in communicating issues and building their own narratives. It came under heavy fire for a decision regarding Malaysia Airports, the airport operator. Anwar had supported a plan by Khazanah, the sovereign wealth fund, to privatise the airport operator in partnership with Malaysia’s workers’ pension fund and Global Infrastructure Partnership (GIP). The plan, however, flew into flak, when it was reported that GIP is to be fully acquired by Blackrock, an investment company which has been identified by United Nations experts as a financial institution implicated in the Gaza genocide. This was met with calls in significantly pro-Palestine Malaysia for Anwar to call off the deal. The government responded with an aggressive campaign to justify the deal which likely resulted in greater anger amongst Malay-Muslims. Specific local grouses like an unfulfilled promise of building a Tamil school also contributed to an attrition of support from Indian voters.
National and local headwinds combined with campaign fumbles ultimately unravelled PH’s chances. Their attacks against PN candidates’ educational qualifications was seen as patronising. Rafizi’s stump speech calling detractors “stupid” solidified the impression of PH as arrogant and supercilious.
In response to the loss, PH has been quick to point out that the by-election changes nothing and that the status quo is maintained. While this is true, they would be mistaken in thinking they should also maintain the status quo in crafting their political narrative and political strategy, especially in winning over Malay voters. This simply is not working. If PH-BN does not buck up, PN could create a momentum that becomes difficult to reverse.